Fresher hiring rebounds, but only AI-native grads get paid

India's IT-BPM sector is set to revive fresher hiring after a sharp contraction, but the recovery is rewiring which graduates get hired. According to HAN Digital's IT-BPM Graduate Hiring Outlook 2027, fresher intake is projected to rise to up to 2.1 lakh in FY27, after falling to an estimated 1.75 lakh in FY26 from 4 lakh in FY22. Demand is shifting toward AI, ML, data engineering and cybersecurity roles, away from conventional entry-level coding and BPO work. GCCs are the fastest-growing channel, expected to take 28% of freshers as they expand into Tier II/III cities, while pure-play BPOs keep shrinking. Key signal: IT-BPM fresher hiring is projected to rise to up to 2.1 lakh in FY27 from an estimated 1.75 lakh in FY26, with Tier-1 IT services offering Rs 12-22 lakh for select AI, data engineering and cybersecurity fresher roles. For hiring leaders, this matters because the fresher pyramid is being rebuilt around AI-adjacent skills, not headcount. For CHROs and TA leaders, the old playbook of bulk hiring, six months of training and bench deployment is losing relevance. Mid-level hiring in the 4+ years band remains under cost and productivity pressure even as entry-level AI roles open up. That means workforce plans need to separate AI-native fresher pipelines from legacy volume hiring, and compensation bands must be redesigned to pay for specialised capability without inflating the entire entry-level structure. GCC expansion into Tier II/III cities also changes where early-talent competition will play out. Teksands view: The rebound is real but narrow. Fresher hiring is recovering at the top of the skill curve while generic entry-level roles keep shrinking. If your campus strategy still assumes volume intake at Rs 3-4 lakh, you are optimising for a pyramid clients are walking away from. Build a separate AI-native fresher track, price it properly, and move early into Tier II/III campuses where GCCs are already expanding.