9.1% hikes, 18% attrition: the pay gap widens

Aon's Annual Salary Increase and Turnover Survey for India 2026-27, covering 1,200-plus organisations across 45 industries, projects 9.1% salary increases for 2027, barely up from 9% in 2026. The bigger signal is attrition, which rose to 18% in 2026 from 16.2% in 2025, reversing last year's improvement. Sector divergence is stark: NBFCs lead at 10.1%, GCCs are projected at 9.4%, while technology consulting and services sit at the bottom at 6.6%, unchanged from 2026. Technology consulting attrition held at 18.4%, and technology platform and products actually improved to 13.8%. AI/ML/data science roles now carry roughly a 10% talent premium over 2025, and 56% of employers have adopted AI productivity tools, up from 46.1%. Key signal: Attrition climbed to 18% in 2026 from 16.2% in 2025 even as 2027 salary budgets stay flat at 9.1%, with AI/ML/data science talent commanding a ~10% pay premium over 2025. For hiring leaders, the headline number is a distraction. Flat budgets plus rising attrition means the money is being reallocated, not increased. GCCs at 9.4% and NBFCs at 10.1% will keep pulling talent from IT services firms stuck at 6.6%, which explains why services attrition stays elevated at 18.4% while product and platform companies improve to 13.8%. If your compensation philosophy is still 'market median for everyone', you will lose AI, ML and data science talent to a 10% premium you haven't budgeted for. The real planning question for FY27 is which roles get non-merit adjustments and which get nothing. Teksands view: Flat budgets plus rising attrition is not stability, it is redistribution. GCCs and NBFCs are outbidding IT services for the same talent pool, and the 6.6% services number is effectively a resignation letter to your best AI engineers. The 10% AI premium is the market telling you where the scarcity is. Stop spreading increments evenly and start defending the roles that walk out the door first.